Stock Market Outlook: Time Is The A Share Bull And Bear Cycle Leader.

The plation point and multiple intersection point of the EMA are the center of value, which is an important pillar of our value center theory.

But in complex market operation, the moving point and intersection point of the moving average are not 1, but there are two or three. Sometimes, on the contrary, there are no significant points which have the plation point and the intersection point to support us.

In the face of these circumstances, we need to consider from a different angle and a more important annual CDP perspective.

CDP is also known as the counter trading system. Its general formula is (closing + + + minimum) 3.

The original design idea is to use CDP system to calculate today's possible supporting points and resistance points, which is used to buy contrarian trading with low buying and selling.

But in my view, the biggest value of CDP is not in the short-term trading, but in its valuation function.

Compared with K-line, it has the advantages of succinct, clear outline and outstanding points.

Compared with the closing price, it also has the highest and lowest two price information, so it is more comprehensive and reasonable.

So, from seeing CDP, it became my main valuation tool.

The biggest advantage of incorporating annual CDP into the value center is that when there are several plational points and intersection points of average moving points, we can choose CDP from the nearest point as the center of value.

For example, from 2001 to 2004, the 400 day moving average had a clear plation at 1975 o'clock, and the 200 day moving average had two obvious plations at 1620 and 1530 points.

But in conjunction with the annual CDP, it is found that the 1530 point is more appropriate than the first two, because the annual CDP in 2002 and 2003 is 1481 and 1483, respectively, and 1530 is the closest point to them.

Also in 2010, the 200 day moving average moved at 3097 points, 100 days, 150 days, 200 days, and 3 moving average points at 3093 o'clock.

In 2011, there were multiple moving averages moving from 2850 to 2860.

However, the annual CDP from 2008 to 2010 is 3002 points, 2866 points and 2811 points respectively, so choosing 2852 points as a center of value is more reliable.

As in 1994 and 1995, the 200 day moving average moved at 652 points for a long time, but the main intersection point appeared at 663. The time was February 1996.

At the same time, the annual CDP in 1994 and 1995 were at 675 and 668 respectively.

Therefore, we directly select 668 points as the center of value.

Positioning the value center is of little significance to grasp the wave space. Although the positioning value also helps to grasp the wave space, for example, the 3093 point is the value center, we can detect 3093 points 1849 x 3093=5174 points, but this is random and accidental.

The main purpose of locating the value center is to observe time.

Because value is time plus price, which point is the real value center. It needs time to verify. Whether a value center is completed or not, it only needs the right time to enter the bull market, and it takes time to play an important role.

The purpose of locating the value center is to see if the value center is built up, and only wait for the right time to enter the bull market.

How to calculate the time?

Point kernel method, when a K-line runs from A point to B point, all price points between A point and B point have a time price (TPO).

For example, in November this year, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a maximum of 3678 points, with a minimum of 3302 points and a monthly unit of time. Then, every point between 3678 and 3302 in November was awarded a time price (one TPO).

By aligning the TPO of each month to the left and identifying it vertically, we can see that as time goes on, the number of TPO obtained at different prices is not the same, only one or two or fewer.

Look at the 1530 point again.

From 1993

For the first time, through 1530 points, until the bull market started in 2005, it gained 19 TPO.

After the bull market began in 2005, there were two crosses of 1530 points.

Therefore, the 1530 value center was constructed by 19 TPO, and was finally confirmed by 21 TPO.

Look at the 2852 point again.

Before it crossed 2852 points for the first time in 2007 and before the bull market in 2014, it gained 18 TPO.

Then, in December 2014 and August this year, there were two crosses of 2852 points.

Therefore, the 2852 value center was constructed by 18 TPO, and was finally confirmed by 20 TPO.

Efficient stock markets often swallow up growth for many years in the next one or two years (especially in China's stock market). This phagocytic growth takes time to recover slowly, so that the long-term rise of the stock market will eventually match the overall growth rate of the economy and listed companies.

This is the most essential rule of the market, and it is also one of the most immutable factors.

Therefore, not only the bull bear cycle, including the large scale finishing of the non bull bear cycle level, such as from 1997 to 1999, but also the need to build a value center before entering the next bull market due to the excessive early growth, due to inadequate adjustment, the value center (the annual CDP value of 1998 was 1204 points), until the 1047 point, the total TPO obtained was 24, which is the largest number of TPO so far.

At the end of 1998, I predicted that the Shanghai composite index would set a new high in 1999, based on the fact that the construction of the value center has reached the condition of "fully satisfied, and only when the time is ripe."

As for the time to mature, that is other aspects, such as form, cycle, etc.

The task of fundamental analysis.

When we do not know the location of the value center, we must use the TPO diagram to find the value center and calculate the number of TPO.

However, after the known value center is located, no TPO map is needed, so as to save time for mapping, directly open the monthly K line graph and move the cursor, and it can count that the price has gained several TPO.

For example, from 1992 to the end of 1995, there were 16 crosses of the Shanghai index line through 668 points. Then, 668, the value center got 16 TPO.

The bull market began in 1996, and there were 3 K lines crossing 668 points.

Therefore, the 668 value center was constructed by 16 TPO, and was finally confirmed by 19 TPO.

Along with this rule, I can see why I heard the bull market last week and heard a smile.

Because no matter which grade adjustment of the 5178 points is, even if it is only the adjustment of 1510 points in 1997 (this probability is very large), it is necessary to build a new value center objectively.

The 3800 point, as a possible new center of value, has only 8 TPO so far.