2017 PTA Industry Supply Side Or Ushered In The Biggest Negative.

For the current situation of PTA industry, there are several main points in his analysis: in the process of capacity development, there is a weak balance between supply and demand, and the contradiction is not prominent; the processing fee is low, and the space for further compression is limited; the PX market is turning to excess, supporting the PTA cost continuously weakly; while the polyester growth rate of the downstream is slowing down, but the efficiency is improved; the domestic demand of terminal demand is better than that of the external demand, and the growth of online shopping has potential.

The 2016 PTA futures forum, organized by the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange, was held in Suzhou.

The forum will be divided into two parts: Macroeconomics and PTA futures and expert interpretation of PTA futures.

Downstream polyester polyester industry benefited from PTA price increase is not large, and its own capacity production growth slowed down and benefits rise, PTA rigid consumer demand stable.

New polyester production capacity is also digesting part.

The supply pressure caused by device restart.

PTA spot processing fee has also been reduced to a new low of ten years, which will further reduce the compression space. Besides, other non industrial factors will also affect the actual cost of PTA.

Overall judgment, if the PTA industry failed to further produce capacity results in 2017, the market will still be hard to get rid of the pressure, and there will be a downward trend in support. However, due to cost reasons, the price center will be significantly higher in 2016.

He said that the new normal trend of PTA market has decided that PTA futures market lacks continuous trend.

The rise of speculative capital in the face of strong industry short selling guarantee pressure tends to come faster and faster.

PTA Market

The trend determines that PTA futures are more likely to invest in counter investment opportunities.

Wu Wenhai, general manager of Soochow futures and energy conversion department, proposed that after 2015, the PTA market entered the new normal, and the bottom of the market price was oscillating repeatedly at the bottom of the long cycle, and the low point slowly increased.

He said that this was a long time history of spot prices, and the spot processing fee was at a lower level. The weak base case continued, and the futures delivery volume was higher and the social inventory became dominant.

According to his analysis, the reasons for the formation of the new normal in the PTA market are mainly as follows: spot continuous high water production, high load production by producers, and the prevalence of base trades.

Looking ahead,

In 2017, the PTA industry's largest supply side came from the Far East.

In particular, once the Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company is restarted, the weak equilibrium state of the supply and demand side of the PTA market in 2015 will shift to a surplus again.

The forward price of futures market continues to rise, and it also stimulates manufacturers to keep the high rate of opening after they sell short.

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As of November 25th, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces reported 7650-7860 yuan / ton of polyester POY150D/48F, the average price was 7746.25 yuan yuan / ton, 0.75% higher than the beginning of the week; DTY150D/48F (low elastic) reported 9300-9500 yuan / ton, the average price was 9362.22 yuan / ton, 0.41% higher than the beginning of the week; FDY150D/96F reported 8100-8400 yuan / ton, the average price was 8224.29 yuan / ton, 0.88% times higher than the beginning of the week.

During the week, the polyester filament market showed a steady and moderate preference. Raw material prices rose and cost pressures appeared.

The PTA spot market of polyester filament has been on the high side, and the PTA has been rising well in recent years. On Wednesday, the 1 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA device of the Helen Lane petrochemical company started heating up and the operating rate increased by 2.44% compared with last week.

This week OPEC limited production news took over the crude oil market again, and the member states' negotiations made some progress, and the PTA market was slightly higher.

The market of polyester filament goes up and down, and the market of ethylene glycol followed the commodity futures market steadily in the beginning of the week. In the second half of the week, the spot hair price of ethylene glycol was reduced slightly, the spot trading price of ethylene glycol was slightly frustrated, the trading atmosphere in the field was active, the market volume was stable, and the downstream polyester factories had stable sales.

The PTA market is again taking over the crude oil market by OPEC's limited production news, leading to higher PTA prices this week. Polyester filament has been slightly increased by cost support.

By the end of November 25th, the mainstream price of PTA market in East China was concentrated at 4900-5000 yuan / ton, up 3.39% from the beginning of the week, up 4.23% from the same period last year; the average price of domestic glycol market was 6410 yuan / ton, up 2.89% compared with the beginning of the week, rising 39.36% compared with the same period last year.

Downstream textile industry production and marketing stability, demand slightly turned weak signs, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom comprehensive utilization rate of 81%.

The operation rate of polyester plant has been maintained at a relatively high level, and the start-up rate of downstream looms has remained high. The inventory level of polyester factories is generally low, and the supply and demand of polyester factories are tight.

Near the end of the BP plan for car maintenance at the end of the month, it is estimated that the supply of PTA will be lowered and the price of PTA will be supported. At present, the price has been running at a high level, and it is expected to be warmer in the near term. Polyester filament is supported by the cost of raw materials. It is expected that the polyester filament will run smoothly and moderately warm next week.