"Uncertainty" Of Mobile Phone Manufacturers Increases

The sharp decline of domestic mobile phone shipment in April was not fully anticipated by mobile phone manufacturers. However, the coming 618 promotion node is on the way, which tests the manufacturer's choice of cost under the pressure of supply chain.

A person from a mobile phone manufacturer told the 21st century economic report that it was originally estimated that the domestic mobile phone market would continue to recover this year, but it did not expect that there would be a decline in the second quarter, so that the sales performance did not meet the expectations.

618 big promotion is a node to promote sales enthusiasm. However, after the problem of core shortage is superimposed, it is very difficult for manufacturers to think about "scale or cost".

Xu Qi, vice president of realme, also said in an interview recently that the rise in raw material prices has greatly changed the relationship between supply and demand“ Frankly speaking, the cost of mobile phones has gone up a lot. According to the trend, the rise of mobile phone prices in the second half of the year is an inevitable trend. In 618 this year, we are also under pressure. "

At the moment that some manufacturers are short of competitive seats, many manufacturers have great expectations for this year's performance. However, the global supply-demand relationship is switching rapidly. Whether the mobile phone manufacturers can quickly match the market demand while maintaining the stability of the supply chain will greatly test the sensitivity and flexibility of mobile phone manufacturers to market touch.

Mobile phone battle starts on e-commerce day

For this year's 618 promotion, manufacturers have placed high enthusiasm, especially those who were stronger than online channels before.

Xu Qi pointed out that at the beginning of the year, realme proposed that this year would be the first year of the outbreak in the Chinese market, and actively deployed 618, hoping that the sales volume during the event could exceed one million.

He said that according to historical data, only Xiaomi and glory can sell more than one million online in 618. He expects to change the online pattern this year.

To this end, realme took the lead in lowering the price of mobile phones equipped with the Qualcomm snapdragon 888 platform to less than 2500 yuan during the promotion period, and proposed a series of activities such as subsidies of 700 million yuan.

Li Kaixin, the new vice president of Yijia mobile phone, also launched the first live broadcast of his career during this period, proposing activities such as direct drop of various products and interest free.

Li Kaixin told the 21st century economic report that "mobile phone manufacturers attach great importance to 618 this year, and Yijia pays more attention to it than in previous years, because at present, e-commerce platforms and consumers have the most connections, which is the shortest path for us. We hope that through 618, more consumers will know about Yijia's products."

These two active brands have high expectations for this year's promotion, which is related to the fact that they have not developed in the domestic market for a long time in history. In the competition window period, if we can break the circle quickly through the promotion activities, it will be an effective breakthrough.

Xu Qi told reporters that in 618 this year, realme's products were deployed from the second half of last year to the first half of this year, with a complete product line and price range; In addition, the company is also actively establishing a strategic cooperative relationship in the channel, so as to obtain more traffic support.

"In the Chinese market, realme was still in the other camp in the first half of last year. For us, the most important thing this year is to break through online first. Because realme is a mobile phone brand with internet attributes, we pay more attention to whether the overall ranking and share will rise at the key time point. " He added that last year realme entered the top five at the promotion of the double 11 National Congress, and hopes to rush forward this year.

The challenge of uncertainty

Of course, the hope is that, from April to the beginning of May, the domestic mobile phone shipment has exceeded the expected growth rate, which seems to show that the demand side has insufficient stamina, and the pressure seems to be looming.

Xu Qi frankly said that there must be pressure. This year, not only the mobile phone terminal, but also the computer chip has an obvious gap. The rising price of raw materials has greatly changed the relationship between supply and demand. He even stressed that it would be a good time to buy mobile phones in the first half of the year, and there might be more price increases in the second half of the year.

Li Kaixin also pointed out to the 21st century economic reporter that since March this year, the domestic market has indeed gone down, which has brought greater pressure on mobile phone manufacturers.

"Even so, the domestic market sales from January to April this year increased by 142% compared with last year. We know that a lot of flagship phones of snapdragon 888 platform were released in March, and the one plus nine series is the best seller, which is both a pressure and a challenge. " He further explained that the rise in Yijia is not actually "against the trend", but is driven by its brand base and the competitiveness of 9 series products.

However, Li Kaixin believes that the periodic decline of the market does not mean that it has come to the inflection point of supply and demand“ From the market point of view, China's mobile phone market is undergoing the process of transformation from pure incremental market to stock market. Therefore, what we see is not the annual increase of new phone users, but the replacement of old users. In fact, mobile phones are still a huge market. At the same time, with the increasing demand for products, the requirements for products are higher and higher. After that, I think the market is more worthy of cultivation. "

Compared with the current market that the sluggish demand is related to the excessive inventory of mobile phone manufacturers before, Li Kaixin does not agree. He said that this is more the decline of consumers' willingness to change planes. After all, the current domestic market consumers' replacement cycle is basically twice the original time.

Xu Qi also believes that realme grew in the first quarter of this year compared with last year, but the overall market may be affected in the next period of time. This mainly comes from two aspects: the restriction of chip supply; The relationship between supply and demand of components leads to the rise of cost and price.

He pointed out that at present, the lack of core in the mobile phone industry has eased compared with the second half of last year, and the overall trend is better. However, core shortage is still a major trend, and facing the global market, 4G chip shortage is relatively more serious“ Storage in components is rising, chips are rising, and charging components are also rising. In the second half of the year (the cost of mobile phones) may rise by about 10%, of course, this is only a rough estimate. "

Xu Qi predicted that the problems of core shortage and component price increase will run through the whole year of this year and continue to the first half of next year, but whether the follow-up will continue needs further understanding. Whether the price of realme will rise depends on the overall supply-demand relationship and whether specific products can support it.

Under the uncertainty, mobile phone manufacturers may need to consider the medium and long-term development strategy and market agility.

Xu Qi said that although realme is still a small brand, it has the advantages of high efficiency, excellent operation mechanism and more agile response“ Since the end of last year, we have rapidly adjusted all our plans and strategic inventories. "

Li Kaixin had a long working experience in Huawei before. After he came to Yijia, he proposed to take about three years to achieve the shipping target of tens of millions in the Chinese market.

"In terms of market opportunities, I don't think the consumer goods industry will always be the first. As long as we can survive at the 'dining table', there will be opportunities. Especially for the brands that exist in the market, their abilities in all aspects have been polished, so there are opportunities." He pointed out that for mobile phone brands, being able to do ten million is a very important node. Only by achieving the level of 10 million, can we have a certain voice in the market, and the brand can have enough voice, thus affecting users, even the upstream and supply chain, and cultivating the entire ecological system.