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Cotton Overlay &Nbsp; Weak Continuation.

2011/5/4 17:02:00 39

Cotton Speculation Period Cotton

The recent decline in cotton prices, the appreciation of the renminbi and the tightening of funds have made it difficult for textile enterprises to operate, and leading enterprises have continuously lowered the purchase price of cotton.

The global economic recovery has slowed down, and the overall commodity market has been emptied.


On the spot side, many cotton warehouses in the area now have cotton stored in small processing plants, with a grade of four.

Recently, with the price falling frequently and the small volume of shipments, many small spinning mills have been shut down.

The continuous appreciation of RMB, the tightening of capital and the rising cost of human resources make textile enterprises difficult to operate, medium and large.

Textile enterprises

Yarn stocks are still high and cotton stocks are not low.

Although the price of cotton has been constantly lowered, the turnover is still in the doldrums, and pessimism is aggravating.

The overall demand for the fundamentals is sluggish and inventory is high, which determines that cotton will not be able to reproduce the hot market of last year.


Cotton planting is slightly better than last year, according to the China cotton monitoring report. As of April 15th, the total spring sowing cotton accounted for 24.5% of the estimated total area, 5.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year, but 10 percentage points slower than the whole year.

According to the China Cotton Association, the output of cotton in 2010 was 6 million 700 thousand tons, which was higher than the previous estimate.

Meanwhile, according to the newly predicted cotton planting intentions in 2011, the national planting area increased by 8.39%, representing a 5.1% increase over March.


The 109th session

Canton Fair

Is in Guangzhou, 1 to 5 days for textile and apparel exhibitors.

The market expects that the Canton Fair will bring a boost to cotton prices. Data shows that textile orders are showing signs of increase, and the market needs to continue to be concerned.


Recently, the worst drought in Texas, the largest cotton producing area in the United States, has seriously affected the seeding progress of the United States and cotton.

USDA's latest average sowing schedule is 13%, 2% slower than last year, and 3% slower than the average in the last five years.

Slow seeding means that the final planting area of Mei cotton may be lower than expected.

In addition, the Ministry of agriculture of Brazil predicted in April that the cotton output in Brazil this year will exceed 2 million tons, up by 70% over the same period, and the consumption volume is expected to be 1 million 100 thousand tons, and the export volume will be around million tons.

The output of Australian cotton will reach million tons, and the export volume will be more than 700 thousand tons.

Because domestic and foreign cotton prices are still largely upside down, domestic imports will not be imported, and the cotton market in the southern hemisphere will suppress ICE cotton.

In the absence of high yield and Chinese buyers, ICE cotton may fall deeper.


Generally speaking, direct demand is the textile mill.

yarn

The sales volume is not good, the finished product inventory backlog is serious, the fund pressure is aggravated, some small textile factories appear the sign of reducing production, and the purchase quantity of cotton raw material has been seriously atrophied.

But in terms of terminal demand, there is still demand for textiles and clothing, domestic output has not increased significantly, imports have been sluggish, and overall supply and demand have been tight.

There is still a contradiction between direct demand and annual demand gap.


The CF1109 contract is still in a downward trend, mainly due to the tight monetary environment and the strong atmosphere of demand companies.

However, poor imports and downstream demand also have some restrictions on the decline.

At present, the downward trend has not changed, there is still a downward momentum, and the overall environment of the commodity is not good enough. It is difficult for the cotton to go out of the independent market, but the decline in the 26000 tier has weakened and there is a demand for technological rebound.

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