Textile And Garment Industry: A Smooth Pition Of Performance Growth Rate &Nbsp; Focus On Recovery

Last week's market review

Last week, the textile and garment sector rose by -2.69% (apparel textile increased by -3.5%, textile manufacturing increased by -1.66%), and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (stock bar) fell by 2.69%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3%.

The overall plate performance is basically synchronized with the market.

In the stock market, we recommended that the stock price of our group will outperform the market, and the weekly gain will be 0.36%. The return of bird and the seven wolves will be adjusted this week. The weekly gains will be -6.62% and -2.37% respectively.

Industry key data

According to the China business information network, in February, the retail sales of hundreds of major retail enterprises in China increased by -7.99% over the same period last year, while the total retail sales in 1-2 months increased by only 8.73% over the same period last year, a 20.26 percentage point slower than the same period last year.

In February, the retail sales of clothing decreased by 8.55%; in 1-2 months, the retail sales of clothing increased by 6.10%, 16.77 percentage points slower than the same period last year.

Raw material prices, the domestic 328 cotton spot price is 19595 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.13% compared with last week; the 336 spot long staple cotton spot price 23 thousand / ton, a slight decrease of 0.43% compared with last week; polyester staple fiber price 11 thousand and 170 / ton, compared with last week, 2.44%; viscose staple fiber 17 thousand and 500 / ton, compared with last week fell 2.78%; 40D light spandex silk low price 43 thousand / ton, unchanged from last week.

Performance growth and orders will be expected

Rand and A released a quarterly report, of which the first quarter performance of rouge slightly exceeded market expectations, while Lu Tai was affected by high cotton reserves, and the fourth quarter performance was lower than expected.

Home textiles greatly promote growth in general, so we judge that the first quarter revenue growth generally around 10%, profit growth is expected to exceed revenue growth.

Good news bird: orders will be expected to increase by 25%+; in the first quarter, we estimate that revenue is about 20%, and profit growth is more than 40%.

Card slave Road: order growth rate is expected to be around 30%, terminal retail growth is expected to be equivalent to this, according to the announcement, the company's first quarter profit increased by 40%-60%.

And Semir clothing, affected by dealer inventory and terminal funding, we expect revenue and profit growth to be single digits in the first quarter.

We maintain the "prudent recommendation" rating for the industry since February 12th weekly.

The textile and garment sector has already digested all kinds of unfavorable factors ahead of time. Although the climate factors are not good enough, it is estimated that most enterprises will have a smooth pition in the quarterly growth rate, and the order will increase by more than 20%.

In the case of stabilizing the market, taking into account the certainty of clothing growth, plate elasticity over the market elasticity.

In the short term, the better brand clothing should be concentrated on the relatively high speed stocks in the first quarter, such as the long - style shares, the good news birds, the seven wolves, the card slave road and so on.

We still have a relatively pessimistic attitude towards productive enterprises.

In the near future, we recommend the listed companies, the good news birds, the blue stock and the seven wolves.

Among them, the good luck birds based on the company's brand operation ability, a relatively high quarterly growth rate in 2012, and more than 80 large stores in 2011 driving the performance of 2012; the main points of the group are mainly based on the following points: first, based on a quarterly high growth rate and the upcoming equity incentive; secondly, based on the promotion effect of the new listing brand, it is expected that the sales will be relatively fast in 2012; and the third is based on the strategy of building multi brand platform to open up space for the company's long-term growth.

The seven wolves are mainly based on the relatively high expected growth rate of 2012Q1, the higher growth rate of orders, and the potential of agent channel integration.