Roley Home Textiles Lowered The Results Of The Mid Day, From Two Ends Of The Sales Cost Squeeze

Rating changes: downgrade (downgrade) rating

I. summary of events

Roley home textiles announced 2012

The revision announcement was changed from original 0-30% growth to 0-30% decline, which is mainly composed of: 1, the sales growth is lower than expected by the macroeconomic environment and internal management factors; 2, the cost increase exceeds the income increase; 3, the government subsidy income is less than the same period.

Two, analysis and judgement

The company's downgrade performance is lower than the market expectations, the key from the two ends of the sales cost squeeze.

Roley home textiles previously reported that we mentioned: the two quarter is

Industry sales in the off-season and opening season, the performance pressure is still relatively large, but the market has been expected, so even if the growth rate is low, the stock price downlink risk will not be great, firmly holding is the key.

However, the performance of the company is declining rather than growth, so the expected difference will lead to a sharp increase in the downward pressure on share prices.

We believe that the poor performance of the company's report is due to the fact that in the context of its own franchisee mode, the high base of single store, the diminishing marginal benefit of sales promotion, and the volume and price rise in the first half of last year, the company has expanded the investment team, promoted the number of shops, and promoted e-commerce and "excellent brand".

However, in the face of slow recovery of terminal, dealers at the same time have more pressure on goods and the enthusiasm of ordering is not high. Sales of companies can not grow as expected, and sales cost can not be controlled well, so input and output can not match.

The three quarter Outlook: the peak season of consumption is coming, but the elasticity will not be great.

The three quarter is the peak season for the traditional consumption of home textiles. Along with the company's big promotion and the concentrated period of history, the market concentrated mainly in the two and fourth quarter, and the base in the second half of last year decreased by quarter. The performance is determined by the year-on-year upward trend and the two quarter is the lowest achievement this year.

However, we believe that this year's sales volume of real estate is in the recovery channel, but it still takes time to truly embody the terminal.

When the terminal does not come, dealers do not dare to shop in a big way. At this stage, the more important thing is to open up shop, rather than lose profits and seize the market share.

Three. Profit forecasts and investment proposals

Down to the "cautious recommendation" rating.

The core EPS forecast for 12-14 years was reduced to 3.08/3.78/4.72 yuan (the last time was 3.32/4.30/5.49 yuan), corresponding to PE 23/19/15 times, and the reduction was mainly due to the growth of single store growth rate and the increase of sales cost rate.

The company is still affected by the "three risks" in our risk warning. The turning point of performance in the three quarter can be basically determined, management needs to run in, terminal recovery needs to wait, and real estate sales are only a matter of time. Investors will still face a dark and dark period before dawn.

The target area is 65-83 yuan in 6-12 months.

Four, risk warning

Problems in internal management; lagging effect of real estate regulation; and terminal inventory digestion risk.