October 22, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] reunion strategy on low side

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20514 yuan / ton; 229 level 19641 yuan / ton; 328 level 18782 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17940 yuan / ton.

domestic

Product: polyester staple fiber 10900 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14890 yuan / ton; C32S price 25690 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 19, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly.

Due to the oversupply of new cotton during the period of listing, the current market price is still lower than the purchase and storage price, and textile demand is unlikely to improve in the short term. It is expected that cotton processing enterprises will mainly rely on storage and storage, plus the large number of existing stocks, the shortage of reserve capacity will become more prominent, and the purchase and storage work will be faced with unprecedented pressure.

3. cotton imports: on the 19 day, the price of China's main port of import cotton fell slightly, of which, the US cotton and Central Asia cotton fell 0.25 cents, while the other varieties fell by more than 1 cents.

As the price of imported cotton continued to rise in recent years, the futures prices of various varieties of ports rose by at least 500 yuan earlier than the beginning of this month.

4. seed cotton purchase: last week (October, 12-18), the new cotton picking work in main producing areas has entered the late stage. The purchase price of seed cotton has been on the rise. The cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the overall sales progress is slow.

At present, the price difference between new cotton storage and spot sales is up to 1500 yuan / ton, and the 400 type enterprises have indicated that the processing of lint is mainly for storing and storing, taking various measures to actively purchase, increase seed cotton purchase quantity, and generally start processing at the same time, so as to carry out storage in advance, and withdraw funds as soon as possible.

5.ICE cotton: 19 days ICE cotton fell near and far higher, the recent December contract closed at 76.88 cents / pound, fell 84 points, 1303 contracts 75.43 cents / pound unchanged; other forward contracts generally small or medium amplitude rose.

Market turnover has dropped markedly compared with the previous two days.

Summary:

In the downturn of global economic growth and the difficult problem of cotton demand in the long term, it is difficult to solve the three stage structure of cotton price in China market.

A few days ago, the market worried that the quality of the new cotton quality in the United States was too high, which could not generate warehouse receipts, and it was also difficult for textile mills to accept it. However, under the background of weak cotton demand and large inventory in China, the quality problem of US cotton was not enough to significantly affect cotton prices in China.

As the author said, the uplink of the United States cotton had a significant effect on the promotion of Zheng cotton, and zhengmian 1301 fell back in front of the high pressure.

Next, Zheng cotton is still dominated by a stable tone, with limited space to go up.

In the period of storage and purchase, there is also limited space. In the period of storage and purchase, the author focuses more on the strategy of lowering prices.

[MEIKO futures] India government follows the pressure of supply from China's cotton market.

Overnight, with the sharp rise in ICE futures at the beginning of this week, the pressure on the market to gain more profits was greater. In October 19th, the December contract was running weak all day. The subsequent purchase was insufficient and the long positions closed down, leading to a 84 drop in cotton price, but a slight rise in the contract of the far month.

Due to the lack of basic coordination in the early cotton price increase, cotton prices will be closed to the 40 day moving average once the cotton price will be lost.

News: 1, just after China made it clear that the quota of cotton imports was no longer issued this year, the "saving the country of curves" in textile mills, and the choice of paying 40% of the import tariff to circumvent quotas, allowed cotton to pass smoothly.

2, the India Cotton Corp (CCI) started the acquisition of cotton in 2012/13, and CCI was purchased according to the requirements of India textile Commission, so that domestic cotton prices reached the lowest supporting price, similar to the Chinese government's backing.

In the international market, in October 19th, the price of China's main port of import cotton fell slightly, of which, the US cotton and Central Asia cotton fell 0.25 cents, while the other varieties fell by more than 1 cents.

As the price of imported cotton continued to rise in recent years, the futures prices of various varieties of ports rose by at least 500 yuan earlier than the beginning of this month.

In addition, the increase in foreign cotton is largely due to speculation by speculators and lack of basic coordination. Therefore, the quotations from outer cotton may continue to fall.

Domestic market, 19, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly.

Due to the oversupply of new cotton during the period of listing, the current market price is still lower than the purchase and storage price, and textile demand is unlikely to improve in the short term. It is expected that cotton processing enterprises will mainly rely on storage and storage, plus the large number of existing stocks, the shortage of reserve capacity will become more prominent, and the purchase and storage work will be faced with unprecedented pressure.

In October 19th, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 75500 tons. As of October 19th, the total annual turnover of cotton temporary storage and storage in 2012 was 1154980 tons, of which 246780 tons in the mainland and 908200 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, October 19th, the US C/A cotton 90.60 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 15348 yuan / ton (calculated according to sliding tax); Australia cotton 97.35 discount RMB general trade port delivery price 16250 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 92.10, discount trade, port price 15543 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 88.85, discount general trade port delivery price 15125 yuan / ton; India cotton 86.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15543 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19645 yuan / ton; the B index is 18788 yuan.

Market analysis, highlighting the quality of new cotton in the United States, resulting in a smaller increase in the number of warehouse receipts, so that speculative investors see the opportunity to promote the ICE cotton futures price uplink.

However, as the number of new cotton increases in the late period, the weakness of warehouse receipts will disappear.

And China's demand is weak, the import volume is expected to halve, and the huge inventory needs to be digested for a long time after the completion of the purchase and storage.

There is a large number of sell-off on the 80 front-line overnight. Once the effective breakthrough period can not be formed, the price will fall.

Zheng cotton continues to detect high pressure ahead.

On the operation, we should carefully hold the test water and watch the 19595 support.

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[German futures] return to shock range zhengcotton downward adjustment

CF1301 opened low on Friday, and CF1301 closed more than 6.2 million hands.

CF1301 closed at 19675 yuan / ton, down 105 yuan / ton, reduced 13524 hands; China's imports in October 19th

(FC Index M) 87.50 cents / pound, down 0.23 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff 14156 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14972 yuan / ton.

According to New York's October 19th news, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton fell on Friday and continued to gain profit after Thursday's five month high.

Yesterday, investors worried about the tight supply in the US, causing trade and speculative shorts to make up.

The ICE12 cotton contract fell 0.84 cents, or 1.08%, at 76.88 cents a pound.

In October 19th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 14000 tons, 3200 tons less than the previous trading day, the order quantity reduced by 640 tons, and the total order 87980 tons.

On the 19 day, the opening of each contract was mixed, and within a wide range of days, the end of the contract basically fell.

On the basic level, the latest macroeconomic data have been promulgated. In a comprehensive view, the domestic economic environment is still stable.

On Friday, Zheng cotton walked lower and lower, and returned to the concussion zone. The price of futures did not increase in the way of price rise, but instead, the profit margin was full and the downward adjustment probability was larger.

Today's operation suggests that investors without warehouse can enter a small number of empty orders, and holders of empty documents can continue to hold. The reference price range of CF1301 is 19300-19700.

[Wanda futures] more single profit to close to the United States cotton fall

Although the market is still worried that the cotton picking cotton in the southeastern part of the United States has a higher level of "micronid value", the US cotton supply that meets the ICE delivery requirement before the first delivery notice December (November 26th) is insufficient.

But in the past week, the proportion of cotton meets the requirements of the new cotton has reached 50.3%, higher than the previous week's 47.4%, which reduced worries and bullish profits, and closed down contracts in recent months. In December, the contract fell 0.84 cents to 76.88 cents / pound, and forward contracts generally rose.

However, as of October 18th, the 12 contract position was as high as 2 million 715 thousand tons, and as of October 19th, ICE cotton stocks were only 1913 tons.

From the CFTC position data, some funds began to turn over more smoothly, and the short-term market rally may continue. If the December contract can stand 77 cents per pound, the rally will continue.

Friday ICE cotton main contract in December down, Xiao Yin reported at 77 cents / pound, but it is still far from the support of the short-term average line, the short-term average line system turned upwards, KD and MACD index continued to rise in a row, MACD index red column began to grow, the rebound trend did not change, watch Zhang ICE cotton carefully, pay attention to December contract 77 cents / pound pressure level.

Although China has not restricted its purchase and storage to support cotton prices, the domestic and foreign cotton prices remain high. China's consumption and exports are still weak. Domestic cotton and Zheng cotton are hard to attract textile buying interest. The decline in positions shows that the lack of confidence is the main factor to curb Zheng cotton's rebound.

On Friday, the main 1301 contract was 19700 yuan / ton, and with the passage of time, capital will flow to 1305 contracts. Meanwhile, Zheng cotton still has 39816 tons of Chen cotton inventory will play a role in the recent contract.

Under the support of lack of capital and popularity, Zheng cotton is hard to get rid of the weak pattern and continue to hold empty contracts, and the short-term goal of the 1301 contract is 19400 yuan / ton.

If it stands again 19700 yuan / ton, the air will be left alone.

It is advisable to continue to increase the number of empty tickets after rebounding to the high point.