Gui Haoming: Brokerage Stocks Are Not In The Ascendant.

With the real stabilization of China's stock market and the good prospects for future development, it should be said that the operation environment of securities companies will be improved in the future.

It has eliminated corrupt elements and perfected the interior.

As well as the widespread strengthening of self-discipline, brokerage firms also have the opportunity to shake off the current difficulties and start a new round of development.

Investors should be confident of that.

But at the present time, we must face up to reality and not ignore its current bad profits. We can not easily imagine that the stock market of the stock market will have a big market this year. Will it be replayed this year?

The so-called "gentlemen do not stand under the danger wall" is roughly the same meaning.

At this time a year ago, the stock market was booming. Investors rushed to the target with a price increase of 10 times.

No wonder, at that time, the stock market which was basically not related to the fundamentals, the brokerage stocks were the few industries that were related to the fundamentals. The sharp expansion of stock market volume, the rapid upgrading of capital levers, the extreme expansion of asset management business and the rapid growth of investment banking business all became the reasons for the surge of brokerage stocks.

In fact, if buying stocks of a brokerage firm decisively at that time, it would be profitable indeed.

However, the good times did not last long. In the two quarter of this year, there was a stagflation in the stock market.

In the four quarter, although the whole market seems to have stabilized basically, it has gone out of a more obvious way.

Quotes, although brokerage stocks are also moving from time to time, but not a year ago as a leading plate.

The problem is also that the running background of the securities companies is obviously deteriorating.

First of all, the regulatory authorities' measures to reduce leverage continue to increase the margin ratio of margin trading, and now stop the financing of income swap business, which makes the securities companies to gain access to various channels including interest rate and handling costs through the magnification of capital leverage.

Moreover, it will also create some pressure on the volume of pactions.

In other words, it can also be said that many sources of risk free earnings of former brokerages have now become smaller.

Secondly, in recent years,

The asset management business is focused on channel, not active investment management.

In the stock market is hot, the two tier market demand for funds, and the market interest rate higher background, this channel business is certainly a big profit point for the broker.

But now, on the one hand, the market interest rate has dropped. On the other hand, after the mid year stock market crash, all sectors of the community are also raising the risk awareness of capital lending, so the profit space of channel business is also compressed.

At the same time, the securities company has also taken the responsibility of "protecting the country". After the stock market crash, it bought a large number of blue chips and made it clear that "no sales under 4500 points".

Whether this part of the investment can achieve positive returns is obviously a question worthy of deliberation.

Of course, different accounting principles will affect the expression of current profits and losses, but huge amounts of funds are in a state of poor liquidity, which is not a positive financial information after all.

If these are only the problems of business development, the internal management of securities firms may be even more disturbing.

Recently, three influential securities firms have been investigated by the SFC for alleged violation of the securities law. A large number of executives are recognized as the leading securities dealers in the industry.

Although many things are still uncertain, some things are just coincidence. But in the background of financial anti-corruption in depth, the management loopholes exposed by the securities companies and the concussion of companies caused by the problems of core managers seem to be unavoidable.

Therefore, the securities companies are probably in a period of high uncertainty, which can not affect their valuation.

Some people say that the stock market has entered the winter, and I am afraid it is not unreasonable.