Registration System Reform Has Low Probability Of Implementation In 2016.

The opening of the two sessions will make important arrangements for the reform of supply side under the premise of steady growth.

Guotai Junan macro research team Ren Zeping and Jie Yun Liang predicted that the positive fiscal policy in 2016 would be more positive, and the prudent monetary policy would be "steady and slightly relaxed".

It is estimated that the GDP growth target in 2016 will be around 6.5%. The direction of registration reform is expected to remain unchanged, but the appropriate timing will be chosen and the probability of implementation in 2016 will be low.

The reform of registration system should be controlled step by step.

The one-step and thorough registration reform requires higher requirements for the rule of law environment, post event supervision, delisting system and so on. Under the condition of imperfect rule of law protection, the implementation of the American registration system will make the capital market become a more serious money game, which is entirely predictable.

From the perspective of the older generation, it is suggested that we should adopt a gradual registration system reform and move forward half a step. We should first reduce the profit threshold of listed companies, appropriately expand the capacity, but still have rhythm control, and the audit subjects should be put on the exchanges and exchanges to examine the comprehensibility and consistency of the registration documents, and we will gradually establish a major safeguard system, such as afterwards supervision, class action system, fraud heavy penalties, delisting system, and so on.

Guotai Junan macro research team Ren Zeping and Jie Yun Liang predict that the GDP growth target in 2016 will be around 6.5%.

To keep the economy running at a reasonable interval, it is estimated that the target set in 2016 will be about 6.5% of GDP, or 6.5% of the bottom line; CPI will be about 3%, which is equal to 2015; M2 is 13%, higher than 2015; the deficit rate is 3%, a 0.7 percentage point increase over 2015.

In 2015, the central economic work conference put forward that "next year and in the next period, we should increase the aggregate demand moderately while strengthening the structural reform of the supply side and implementing the five major policy pillars to complement each other".

"Macroeconomic policy must be stable, which is to create a stable macroeconomic environment for structural reform.

The positive fiscal policy should be intensified, the tax reduction policy should be implemented, and the fiscal deficit rate should be increased at a phased stage. At the same time, the necessary fiscal expenditure and government investment should be appropriately increased, and at the same time, it is mainly used to make up for the reduction of tax revenue brought by tax reduction and to ensure the government's responsibility for expenditure.

A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, so as to create an appropriate monetary and financial environment for structural reform, reduce financing costs, maintain a reasonable and adequate liquidity and increase the total amount of social financing, expand the proportion of direct financing, optimize the credit structure, and improve the exchange rate formation mechanism.

The positive fiscal policy will be more positive, and the deficit rate in 2016 may exceed 3%.

Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of finance of China, pointed out at the G20 meeting that China still has room to improve in 2016.

The two sessions will raise the deficit in March.

At the end of 2015, Lou Jiwei, Minister of finance, pointed out at the national financial work conference that in 2016 and in the future, we should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and intensify our efforts.

This is mainly reflected in the following aspects: increasing the deficit rate stage by stage, expanding the scale of the deficit, increasing the issuing scale of the Treasury bonds, and rationally determining the new debt limit of the local governments.

Prudent monetary policy will be "slightly relaxed" and flexible and moderate.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, pointed out at G20 news conference that China still has certain monetary policy space and various monetary policy tools, and will continue to implement a flexible and moderate prudent monetary policy.

It is expected that there will be 1 interest rates cut in 2016 and 6 reduction.

From October 2015 to 2016 2, the central bank mainly supplemented liquidity and guided market interest rates through open market operations and new monetary policy tools such as MLF, SLF and PSL.

In February 29, 2016, the central bank's universal deposit rate was 0.5%, which could release 6000-7000 billion of funds, and the target of reduction was two. One is the need for steady growth before and after the two sessions. Two is the outflow of hedge capital. Combined with the vice governor of the central bank, Yi Gang, "monetary policy should not be too lax", it is expected that this reduction will form a certain substitute for open market operation and MLF operation, and it will not overrun water.

It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will be stable before and after the two sessions.

Since the beginning of the Spring Festival, the central bank has continuously released the signal of maintaining stability, the coordination of Sino US policies, the decrease of foreign reserves and lower than expected trade surplus, and so on. This has made the market gradually recognize the determination and ability of the central bank to maintain stability of the RMB.

It is expected that the stability of the RMB exchange rate before and after the "two sessions" will help to ease the pressure of outflow of funds. The long-term future of the RMB exchange rate depends on the prospects of China's economic growth, which is further determined by the progress of the reform.

Capital market

He will assume an important mission.

The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to giving full play to the important role and mission of multi-level capital markets in promoting the economic pformation in the supply side reform. It is expected that the capital market will undertake an important mission in the supply side reform of "going to capacity, stocktaking, deleveraging, reducing costs and making up short boards".

In accordance with the decision of the party in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, promoting the registration system of stock issuance is the capital market.

One of the key tasks.

Ren Zeping predicted that registration system reform in 2016 will be less likely to be implemented.

From March 1st, the State Council's authorization for registration system reform will be formally implemented for a period of two years.

But March 1st is only the starting time, and there is no timetable for implementation time.

In February 26th, a spokesman for the securities and Futures Commission, Deng Ge, said that after being authorized by the State Council, the SFC would formulate specialized departmental rules, information disclosure standards and normative documents according to the procedures, and establish a system of registration rules systematically. This work needs a long time process.

On February 27th, Wang Yi, member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, said in a forum that the registration system reform has been in the stage of "second instance" of the National People's Congress. The State Council authorized the SFC to speed up the trial as far as possible, but the possibility of introducing the registration system reform plan in 2016 is unlikely.

In March 1st, the SFC announced that it had successfully completed the proposal of the NPC deputies in 2015 and the CPPCC members' proposals, and did not mention the registration system reform.

It is estimated that the direction of registration reform will remain unchanged, but the right time will be chosen and the probability of implementation in 2016 will be low.