Short Term Economic Data Worry Free A Share Trend Is Optimistic.
In the case of Trump's election, the recent market still achieved a substantial rise, showing that A shares are more resilient and investor sentiment has been restored.
From the perspective of style, the market still favours industries such as nonferrous metals, steel and mining, which benefit from rising prices.
From the data released recently, the economy remains stable in the short term.
In terms of funds, it is expected that the central bank will maintain a basically stable liquidity.
If further market sentiment is further improved, additional funds such as pensions will enter the market or push the market center upward.
The US general election is over, and the market is worried.
risk factor
It has been settled that the early market worries about President Trump are too radical, and the market confidence will be restored in the near future.
In the first three quarters, GDP and PMI exceeded expectations in October, and there was no concern about short-term economic data.
On the capital side, the recent housing market regulation and the regulation of the bond market have diverted favorable funds into the stock market. At the end of the year, the market participants are willing to do more, and the emergence of incremental funds has been verified from the data.
In addition, the domestic reform is still worth looking forward to. The recent mixed development of state-owned enterprises, land reform and other accelerated signs, while overseas Trump's infrastructure investment stimulus and reverse globalization to China.
The Belt and Road Initiative
The benefits brought by the promotion can not be falsified temporarily.
On the whole, we should maintain the optimistic judgement of the market in the near future.
At present, it is particularly important to conform to the market style. Financial, infrastructure, resource goods and other trends are strong and have basic support. For example, the performance of securities brokerage companies is improving. Many sectors of the infrastructure sector have benefited from the promotion of financial strength. The supply side reform has initially become effective, and some commodity prices continue to rise sharply in the stock market.
In addition, the preference of large capital also pushes market style towards blue chips, while some of the "Internet +" represented high growth and high valuation sectors are also affected by frequent negative news and continue to walk on the path of valuation return.
Therefore, the market lacks the impetus to reverse style in the short run.
And small and medium-sized comprehensive reversal of the decline is a necessary condition for the market to rise substantially.
Comprehensive market analysis shows that policy easing is limited.
Exchange rate fluctuation
And financial leverage, the central bank still tends to use OMO and MLF and other tools to regulate liquidity. It is expected that the possibility of continued liquidity in the future is still small, but it is easy to be affected by seasonal factors and the pace and intensity of central bank operation, and the possibility of short-term volatility is not small.
A shares short term trend is optimistic, short term lack of momentum to reverse style.
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