Talking About The Sustainability Of Zheng Cotton'S Rise From The Perspective Of Inventory

After the Spring Festival, the differentiation of cotton purchase and sale made the trend of Zheng cotton relatively dull.

The expected "downstream peak" of the downstream recovery, the accelerated movement and the slight rise in prices also ended in only a week.

After studying its origin, after the downstream purchase and sale recovered smoothly, the seasonal supply easing effect became more prominent.

At the beginning of this cotton year, affected by the delayed harvest of new cotton, in order to ensure the use of cotton in textile enterprises, the national cotton store continued to turn out in September, so the cotton inventory was relatively abundant at the beginning of this year.

Since then, the new flower volume has been listed on the harvest season, but the downstream cotton related orders have been followed up for a limited period, and the overall social inventory is in an accumulating trend.

At present, the cotton social inventory is the most important in 8 years. Some traders to buffer the holding risk and aggressively carry out the hedging of the disk, thus showing the attractive characteristics of the high price of the disk area to the warehouse receipts, and making the phased easing of the social inventory easy to evolve into the air pressure on the disk.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of the end of March, the average daily stock of cotton enterprises in textile enterprises was about 44.8 days (including the number of cotton imports to Hong Kong), which was 0.2 days higher than the same period last year and 0.1% higher than that in the same period last year.

In this month's cotton purchase intention survey, there is a 0.5 percentage point decline in purchasing intention, which objectively reflects: first, enterprise inventory can still support more than a month's production; two, the purchasing and selling sentiment of raw materials is increasing; three, confirms the stage loose pattern in commercial inventory.

In terms of business inventories, social inventories will drop to 2 million 750 thousand tonnes after consumption at least two to three months, according to the average annual apparent consumption.

Until then, the pattern of phased easing will continue.

As for the raw material inventory of textile enterprises, the habit of buying along with the purchase will continue until the purchase and sale of the downstream market has completely changed.

Internationally, at present, there is support from India MSP. In the mid-term, there is good negotiation and short-term export shipment data. The recent weather problems caused by El Nino also have some help.

However, at present, the price of US cotton has been at a relatively high level. The US cotton fund has many net positions and there is a momentum of adjustment.

Zheng cotton aspect, at present the plate is good for the future is expected to ferment, with the planting period, the volume increases the warehouse to enter.

In April 10th, it was constrained by the stage of loose supply pattern and the limited purchase and sale of the downstream market. The large number of liquidated positions in the intraday market did not substantially break through the 16100 second pressure level.

It should be noted that at present, the 09 contracts in which the funds are stationed are significantly lower than those of the 05 contracts, and the traditional strong monthly contracts have a strong trend.

According to the above analysis, the possibility of large-scale replenishment is limited, and the pattern of commercial inventory will gradually change in the medium term.

We should pay close attention to the situation of inventory and disk, in essence, break through the signal and downstream operation.