China'S Carbon Emission Trading Market Starts Countdown, Carbon Neutral Plate Is Popular With Institutions

      The national carbon emission trading market will start soon.

      On the afternoon of May 22, at the 2021 carbon neutral and green development forum held by Shanghai Jiaotong University, Lai Xiaoming, chairman of Shanghai environment and energy exchange, said that according to the national arrangement, it is basically certain that the national carbon emission trading will be launched before the end of June.

In the secondary market, carbon neutral plate has been launched again this month. The wind carbon neutrality index has risen 8.30% since the beginning of the month.

The national carbon emission trading market will start soon. Visual China

Low carbon development with frequent policies

      At the end of February this year, when Huang Runqiu, Minister of the Ministry of ecology and environment, went to Hubei Province and Shanghai city to investigate the construction of carbon market, he stressed that it was necessary to ensure that online trading should be launched before the end of June this year.

In the following three months, a series of progress news including "the market infrastructure structure adopts the" two city model "has been coming. After entering may, the construction of national carbon market has been accelerated again.

On May 19, the Ministry of ecology and environment organized the formulation and issuance of "carbon emission right registration and management rules (Trial)", "carbon emission trading management rules (Trial)" and "carbon emission right settlement management rules (Trial)".

The above-mentioned documents further regulate the registration, trading and settlement activities of national carbon emission rights, and are the key and principle rules for carbon market trading and performance. This also means that real progress has been made in the start-up of the carbon market, and the national carbon market trading is approaching the practical stage.

According to Lai Xiaoming on May 22, the basic construction of the national carbon market trading system in Shanghai has been completed, and the relevant rules and regulations have been completed.

The 21st century economic reporter noted that in May, not only the construction of the national carbon market was rapidly promoted, but also a number of relevant policies were issued to set the tone for the low-carbon development of the industry.

Jin Xiandong, a spokesman for the national development and Reform Commission, said on May 18 that an action plan to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 is being worked out, and the implementation plan for carbon peak in the industries and fields of electric power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemical industry, building materials, construction, transportation and other industries and fields is being studied and formulated Further clarify the schedule, roadmap and construction drawing of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.

In terms of photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy industries, the State Energy Administration issued the notice on issues related to the development and construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the "notice") on the 20th.

According to the notice, wind power and photovoltaic power generation will account for about 11% of the total social electricity consumption in 2021, which will be increased year by year to ensure that the proportion of non fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025.

According to the notice, the guaranteed grid connected scale will not be less than 90 million kilowatts in 2021. However, there are still subsidies for household photovoltaic power generation, with a budget of 500 million yuan“ If the parity projects approved in 2019 and 2020 can not be connected to the grid at the end of this year, all policy incentives, including grid connection priority, generation hour acquisition and grid price, will be cancelled. " Societe Generale Securities pointed out that this "notice" and the series of documents issued before reconfirmed the rigid demand of domestic photovoltaic installation this year. By the end of 2021, grid connection will still be the best choice for affordable projects, and it is expected that the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 65-75gw.

Societe Generale Securities also said that the amount of subsidy (500 million yuan) for domestic household photovoltaic power generation determined in the "notice" exceeded the previous market expectation of "declining to 300 million yuan or canceling", and the demand for large-scale household photovoltaic power this year is strong.

From the macro data, China's new energy power generation capacity will continue to grow in 2021. By the end of April 2021, the installed capacity of wind power in China was 290 million kilowatts, an increase of 34.6% year on year; The installed capacity of solar power generation was 260 million kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. From January to April, China's investment in wind power and photovoltaic sector increased by 8.0% and 31.9% respectively year-on-year.

In addition, in the field of waste treatment and environmental protection, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the development plan for urban domestic waste classification and treatment facilities during the 14th Five Year Plan period (hereinafter referred to as the plan) on May 13.

According to the plan, by the end of 2025, the resource utilization rate of urban domestic waste in China will reach about 60%, the sorting collection and transportation capacity of domestic waste in China will reach about 700000 tons / day, and the incineration capacity of urban domestic waste will reach about 800000 tons / day, accounting for about 65% of the total.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that the implementation of the "plan" has put forward higher requirements for domestic waste classification and treatment in China. High quality development, optimization of waste treatment structure and improvement of resource utilization facilities will become the focus of domestic waste treatment in the future. New energy and sanitation equipment, domestic waste treatment, resource recovery and other fields in the environmental protection industry are expected to benefit fully.

Institutions are optimistic about the aftermarket opportunities of carbon neutral related sectors

The national carbon trading market will soon be launched, and the carbon neutral concept stocks in the secondary market have changed for a long time.

The wind carbon neutral index has risen 8.30% since May 6, the first trading day of the month, according to data.

In March this year, the wind carbon neutral index had a wave of rise of more than 20%. At that time, it took part in the stock market of many local carbon emission exchanges, such as Huayin power (600744. SH), Changyuan power (000966. SZ) and Shenzhen Energy (000027. SZ), etc.

Now in May, carbon neutral concept market returns, and the above-mentioned targets are also active again in the near future. Data show that index leader Bank of China electric power rose as high as 85.35% since May 6, and went out of the four even board last week.

"The recent market of carbon neutral plate is brought by the leader of Bank of China electric power," an investment researcher working in large-scale private placement told reporters, "I am not optimistic about the future market opportunities of this batch of carbon neutral concept stocks, which are basically market fund speculation."

"There is still a certain amount of heat in front of the topic, and many concepts will be active again and again for a period of time. When the carbon trade is implemented, it may be about the same. " The person added.

It's not just carbon neutral concept stocks that rose in May. The 21st century economic reporter has noticed that since May, the prices of carbon neutral and related sectors have all recovered.

Wind data shows that since the beginning of May, the photovoltaic index has increased by 3.50%, the wind power index has increased by 0.76%, the nuclear power index has increased by 1.10%, the energy storage index has increased by 3.66%, and the environmental protection index has increased by 3.19%.

At the same time, a number of institutions in an interview pointed out that continued to be optimistic about carbon and related plate future investment opportunities.

Yao Zhipeng, chief investment officer of Harvest Fund's growth style, told reporters that carbon peaking and carbon neutralization will bring a new round of supply side reform in upstream industries, especially for new energy, steel, coal, chemical, nonferrous and other cyclical industries.

"First of all, new energy and photovoltaic are benefiting greatly, and the demand continues to expand; Secondly, the leading enterprises in chemical industry and nonferrous metal industry will benefit. Carbon neutralization means that the backward production capacity will be continuously reduced, which will benefit the leading enterprises with obvious environmental protection and cost advantages. " Yao Zhipeng said.

In addition to the above industries, Yao Zhipeng is also particularly optimistic about new energy vehicles. It told reporters that in the medium and long term, new energy vehicles will have "industry level" investment opportunities.

"With the continuous technological innovation in the middle and lower reaches of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the pattern of the new energy vehicle industry in the future is that the abnormal heat in the downstream will drive the supply and demand pattern of the whole midstream to be significantly improved, and the beta of the industry will rise. The certainty of the middle and upper reaches of the whole industry will be relatively stronger for a period of time in the future." Yao Zhipeng said.

In addition, Yao Zhipeng also mentioned "emerging industries conducive to efficiency improvement": "the emerging industries here not only increase the utilization of new energy at the energy end, but also include the corresponding efficiency improvement and technology upgrading."

A fund person working in a small-scale high-performance public offering fund told the reporter that their fund was very optimistic about the investment opportunities of the photovoltaic plate, "we have always configured a lot of photovoltaic, and the most beneficial one of carbon neutral must be photovoltaic."

According to the source, his fund also made additional allocation when photovoltaic fell sharply in the first quarter of this year“ This year, we are mainly optimistic about the silicon link, and we have been adding warehouse related targets before. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about energy storage. "

"In addition, we also configured the environmental protection sector, which is still held in the first quarter. We believe that the valuation of environmental protection is low, and the future space is good. " The person added.

Dongfang Securities pointed out that combined with the actual policies and industrial progress of carbon peaking, carbon neutralization, the following industrial links will be particularly beneficial: first, the energy supply side, mainly involving carbon emission monitoring, CCUs, carbon trading, clean energy, etc; Second, energy transmission and storage, mainly involving UHV, power Internet of things and energy Internet, smart energy services, distributed generation and Microgrid, electrochemical energy storage, pumped storage and hydrogen energy; The third is the energy consumption side, which mainly involves the reduction of industrial energy consumption, the assembly type of construction process, and the replacement of new energy in transportation field.