Analysis Of Global And Chinese Cotton Market Situation

 

After the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, the global economic stimulus policy has brought about currency flooding and a "mirage" of economic growth. Commodity markets generally rose. With inflation rising significantly, the differentiation of global monetary policy has accelerated under the loose tone. Central banks of Russia, Brazil, Hungary, Mexico, Czech Republic and other countries have successively increased interest rates. Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom have reduced the scale of bond purchase. On August 26, South Korea rushed to raise interest rates in Asia. In the year of 021 / 22, the Fed plans to reduce the scale of bond purchasing, and the degree of monetary easing is not as good as before. The rise of commodity markets including cotton is on a slow track.

 

2. Under the refraction of the external environment, the supporting force of the basic plane decreases synchronously

 

The year 2020 / 21 is an unconventional year. The loose monetary policy and the short-term rebound of consumption support the sharp rise of the market. However, this force gradually decreases in 2021 / 22, which is mainly reflected in the year-on-year change of consumption. According to the prediction of relevant international organizations, the global cotton inventory consumption ratio in 2020 / 22 is 77.12%, which is 18.35% lower than that in 019 / 20, while the global cotton inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 is expected to be 70.73%, 6.39% lower than that in 2020 / 21. Inventory consumption significantly narrowed than the year-on-year decline, the strength of market support is also weakening.

 

3. Port congestion impacts the whole industry chain, and the terminal textile and clothing export market has great operating pressure

 

Affected by the rebound of the epidemic situation, the silting of ports around the world is becoming more and more serious, which impacts the textile and garment industry chain. According to media statistics, the global shipping system is facing the biggest crisis in the past 65 years. The sea freight prices from China, Southeast Asia to the east coast of North America exceeded US $20000 per TEU for the first time. Since this year, the Baltic dry bulk index has risen by more than 180%, reaching a new high in 11 years. Port congestion not only disrupts the normal operation of the global cotton textile industry chain, but also increases cotton prices and sea freight. The bargaining power of terminal domestic and foreign sales orders is weak. Many foreign trade enterprises are besieged. Many export orders are in a dilemma. The downstream pressure of the terminal may eventually force the upstream to cool down.