Industrial Cluster: Pay Attention To The Growth Trend Of Pakistan'S Cotton Import

According to statistics, as of September 15, 2024, Pakistan's seed cotton will be listed at 222000 tons of lint, a year-on-year decrease of about 63.5%. From the flow of new cotton that has been listed, Pakistan's domestic cotton mills will purchase about 209000 tons of lint, while exports will be only 62 tons, and the remaining ginning plants will have about 13000 tons of unsold inventory.

In addition, in 2024, the year-on-year decrease of Pakistan's cotton planting area is greater than that of USDA ICAC and other institutions expect that, therefore, some international cotton merchants and Pakistani cotton export enterprises judge that Pakistan's cotton output will decline by 40-50% year-on-year in 2024/25, and the cotton import volume will increase in a blowout manner. American cotton, Brazilian cotton, Australian cotton, Indian cotton and other cotton producing areas are the focus of Pakistan Cotton Mill's rush purchase.

However, according to the feedback from some Pakistani cotton processing enterprises, cotton merchants and farmers, although the actual cotton output of Pakistan in 2024/25 is lower than the 1.2 million tons predicted in the USDA report, the year-on-year decline is unlikely to be higher than 25%. Some organizations and cotton related enterprises may have large deviations in their estimates, which need to be corrected in time.

On the one hand, as of September 15, the actual listed lint volume in Pakistan will be significantly higher than 222000 tons, because cotton farmers and cotton processing enterprises have completed a large number of transactions in unofficial channels (not within the scope of PCGA's latest listing data statistics) in order to avoid 18% sales tax, and the proportion of private and unofficial transactions continues to rise rapidly.

On the other hand, in 2024/25, Pakistan cotton harvest, sale, processing and transportation period was slow due to rainfall (flood disaster) and insect pests in the local cotton area. Cotton farmers actively took various measures to resist insect pests, and the progress was significantly lower than the same period of 2022/23 and 2023/24, so the growth of PCGA processing data was less than expected.

Moreover, according to the USDA report, Pakistan's cotton output in 2024/25 is about 1.2 million tons. The seed cotton collected, processed and sold before the middle of September is mainly early maturing varieties and flowers before summer (in recent years, the planting area of Pakistan's medium/late maturing varieties has grown rapidly, accounting for more than 60%). As of September 15, the amount of seed cotton converted into lint is less than 20% of the total annual output, Pakistan new cotton has not been collected and sold in a centralized way.

In addition, the purchase price of Pakistan seed cotton in 2024/25 was lower than farmers' expectations, which also led to low sales rates in Punjab and Sindh.