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China'S Economy Will Be Unable To Maintain A High Growth Rate Of 11.9%.

2008/8/26 14:00:00 13

China'S Economic Development Trend Export

Experts believe that the main reason for the decline of China's current economic growth is the decline in export growth.

For a long time, on the basis of "export driven" economic growth, when the external demand is shrinking, the decline of growth is inevitable.

Under the pressure of continuous tightening monetary policy, soaring energy, raw material prices and wage increases, the investment cost of enterprises has increased, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment has declined significantly.

When exports are slowing down as external demand slows down and domestic costs rise, overcapacity in the export sector will further inhibit investment growth.

Under the expectation of the main export market economic downturn (the US and Europe), slowing the appreciation of the renminbi and raising the export tax rebate rate of some products are obviously limited in stimulating China's economic growth.

Xiamen University's macroeconomic research center and the Asian Institute of Singapore Nanyang Technology University jointly issued the "China's macroeconomic forecast and Analysis 2008 autumn report", which is affected by factors such as declining export growth, slowing investment in manufacturing industry and slow consumption growth. It is expected that China's economy will continue to maintain a 11.9% growth rate in 2007 for a period of time.

Since 2000, China's economy has entered a 8 year upward economic growth range.

Among them, from 2003 to 2007, the economic growth rate exceeded 10% in 5 consecutive years and reached a new high of 11.9% in 2007.

However, after entering the 2008, the economic growth rate began to fall: in the first quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was 10.6%, down 1.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and 10.4% in the first half, down 1.8 percentage points compared to the same period.

On the other hand, CPI rose 8% in the first quarter of 2008, up 5.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and the consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.9%, up 4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In the first half of the year, CPI rose 7.9%, much higher than the 3.2% in the first half of 2007, and the producer price index (PPI) rose by 7.6%, also higher than 7.4% in 1-5 months.

　　出口下滑导致的紧缩效应值得关注

Export growth slowed sharply, import growth continued to rise, net export surplus growth declined, and foreign exchange reserve balance hit a new high.

In the first half of 2008, the sharp decline in China's export growth was a notable feature.

Export growth has been on the decline since the second half of 2007, and the growth rate has dropped sharply in 2008. Meanwhile, import growth has continued to rise.

Export growth in the first half of this year was 21.9%, down 5.7 percentage points, of which the export growth rate dropped to 17.6% in June, down nearly 10 percentage points from the same period last year.

Imports grew 30.6%, accelerated 12.4 percentage points, and the trade surplus decreased by 13 billion 200 million US dollars compared with the same period last year.

The increase in net exports in the first 6 months of 2008 was lower than that in the same period in 2007.

Although the balance of foreign exchange reserves totaled 18088 billion US dollars at the end of 6, the number of new foreign exchange reserves has begun to be lower than that of the same period last year.

In the first quarter, the merchandise trade surplus and the actual utilization amount of FDI were 68 billion 831 million US dollars, while foreign exchange reserves increased by 92 billion 397 million US dollars in the same period. By June, the merchandise trade surplus and the actual utilization amount of FDI increased by 152 billion 37 million US dollars, and foreign exchange reserves increased by US $144 billion 540 million.

From the perspective of trade, the growth rate of general trade exports declined sharply in the first half of 2008, the growth rate of general trade imports increased rapidly, and the net trade surplus of general trade declined sharply.

However, the increase in general trade imports is likely to be an import decision made by enterprises based on the judgement of China's rapid economic growth in 2007, not the result of the expansion of domestic market demand.

As the general trade export enterprises are mainly domestic enterprises, the reduction of local enterprises' earnings and the tightening effect of domestic products on the final product prices deserve special attention.

In terms of processing trade, the export growth of processing trade has declined significantly.

Compared with the same period in 2007, the growth rate of export processing and assembly trade decreased most obviously. The growth rate of import processing trade export was slightly lower than that of the same period in 2007, but it was significantly lower than that of the same period in 2006.

In addition to the impact of the world economy, the appreciation of the Renminbi should be a major reason.

From the point of view of the import and export countries, China's export growth in the US, Europe and Asia has been declining in 2008 years, of which China's exports to the United States have continued to decline for the past two years and the most obvious. The export growth rate to Europe has been significantly lower than the same period last year in the first two quarters of this year, but slightly higher than the same period in 2006.

China's import growth from above three countries and regions has increased in the one or two quarter of 2008, of which the growth rate of imports from Europe has greatly improved.