RMB Exchange Rate Ended Two Days In A Row

The 6.20 point or the central bank tolerates the bottom line.

In the inter-bank foreign exchange market, yesterday's exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar opened at 6.1894, depreciated by 39 basis points, and dropped to 6.1956 after early trading, and then approached the 6.20 pass. But then the peak turned back, and the yuan fell to a higher level. After that, the exchange rate rose to a minimum of 6.17, and the intraday wave amplitude exceeded 200 points.

As of yesterday's close, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1768, an appreciation of 87 basis points, ending the trend of nearly two days of slump.

Unlike the central bank's weakening of the central parity price in March of this year, the central bank has been raising the central parity price for many consecutive days.

Yesterday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1195, up 36 basis points compared with the 6.1231 in December 9th, and it has been refreshing for nearly four consecutive months in the past 9 months.

According to the Information Times reporter, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated by 2% this year.

Liu Xinliang, a major foreign exchange analyst, told reporters yesterday that the depreciation of the RMB is not in line with the fundamentals of the economy. The RMB exchange rate is at the 6.20 point or the central bank tolerates the bottom line.

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In the latest report, Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank, said that the central bank may not intervene in the market on Monday and Tuesday.

But the central bank will not let the extreme market spread, and if the renminbi is to fall again in the future, the central bank will intervene.

The next step will depend on the attitude of the central bank and the intervention and intervention efforts.

There are also market speculation that the recent trend of RMB or the central bank's current embarrassing situation.

Macro analysis of people's livelihood believes that after the central bank cut interest rates, the market

If the central bank further cuts interest rates, it will undoubtedly fuel the already booming stock market. But if action is not taken and financing costs remain high, the real economy will continue to be under pressure.

In a dilemma, putting foreign exchange into account may become the choice of the "central mother". There are two advantages to this approach: first, it is not as big as lowering the interest rate and lowering the interest rate. It will not fuel the market sentiment. Secondly, promoting the moderate depreciation of the RMB can also offset the recent upward trend of the US dollar index, lower the effective exchange rate and support the subsequent weak exports.

Haitong Securities also mentioned that in the case of exchange rate control, foreign exchange reserves are still huge and foreign trade surplus is running record, the change of exchange rate reflects the intention of regulators.

However, there are also different views from analysts.

Tim Condon, the Asian Research Director of Holland International Group, said that the possibility of a policy initiative to guide the devaluation of the RMB by policy to maintain exports is not very likely. "The global export growth is not good, which means the central bank needs to devalue the RMB so that it can provide a clear export advantage for the trade industry."

They never did this before, and I don't think they will do so today.

Khoon Goh, senior foreign currency strategist at Australia's new bank in Singapore, also said that under the background of the rise of the US dollar, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate has been strengthening. This is a clear signal that the central bank does not seek to boost economic growth through devaluation of the RMB.