Printing And Dyeing Industry Association: A Brief Analysis Of The Economic Operation Of Printing And Dyeing Industry In The First Half Of The Year

In the first half of 2024, China's macro-economy will operate smoothly, GDP will achieve a medium high growth of about 5%, the employment situation will be generally stable, the relationship between market supply and demand will be improved, the price level will rise moderately, the scale of goods import and export will hit a record high in the same period, and the good development trend of the domestic economy will provide a good support foundation and favorable conditions for the printing and dyeing industry. From January to June, with the gradual release of domestic and foreign market demand, the overall production situation of China's printing and dyeing industry was good, and the output of printing and dyeing fabrics of enterprises above designated size achieved steady growth; The export scale of major products continued to grow, but the export growth rate declined; The operation efficiency has been significantly improved, and the industry profit level has been quickly restored. At the same time, it should also be noted that the foundation for the current recovery of the domestic consumer market still needs to be consolidated, the export pressure of the printing and dyeing industry is gradually emerging, the recovery of large, small and medium-sized enterprises is uneven, and promoting the steady and healthy development of the industry still faces many challenges.

01 The production situation is generally stable, and the output has achieved steady growth

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2024, the output of printing and dyeing fabrics of enterprises above designated size in the printing and dyeing industry will reach 28.35 billion meters, with a year-on-year growth of 3.98% and a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points over the first quarter. In the first half of the year, the monthly output of printing and dyeing fabrics of printing and dyeing enterprises above designated size remained at a high level of more than 5 billion meters, and the monthly output in the second quarter increased month by month. With the recovery of China's national economy and the consolidation of the positive trend, the macro policy effect continues to release, the domestic textile and clothing market demand is further repaired, and the improvement of domestic demand provides important support for the stable growth of production and supply in the printing and dyeing industry. The data shows that in the first half of the year, the national per capita clothing consumption expenditure increased by 8.1% year on year, 2.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year; From January to June, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles of units above the designated size increased by 1.3% year on year, and the online retail sales of clothing goods increased by 7.0% year on year.

Figure 1 Output and growth rate of printing and dyeing fabrics of enterprises above designated size in the printing and dyeing industry in the first half of 2024

02 The export scale keeps growing, and the export growth rate has declined

According to the statistics of China Customs, from January to June 2024, the export volume of China's eight major categories of printing and dyeing products will reach 16.21 billion meters, up 2.73% year on year, and the growth rate will fall 3.81 percentage points from the first quarter; The export value was US $15.395 billion, up 0.73% year on year, 4.22 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter; The average export unit price was 0.95 US dollars/meter, down 1.95% year on year, 0.46 percentage points more than that in the first quarter. In the first half of 2024, the inflation pressure of major developed countries will gradually ease, the global economy will recover mildly, international brands will enter the inventory replenishment cycle, and the demand of Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries for China's printing and dyeing fabrics will increase. The export scale of China's eight major categories of printing and dyeing products will achieve a small increase on the basis of the higher base in the same period of last year, but the current increase in external demand is not stable, The export market competition of printing and dyeing products has intensified, and the average export unit price still shows a downward trend. The export growth rate of eight categories of printing and dyeing products in China has decreased month by month under the influence of consumption in developed countries tends to weaken, the global manufacturing industry has declined, and the base has increased.

Figure 2 Export of China's eight categories of printing and dyeing products in the first half of 2024

In the first half of the year, the export performance of China's printing and dyeing industry to ASEAN and RCEP member countries was significantly better than the overall export situation. From January to June, China's eight categories of printing and dyeing products exported 3.978 billion meters to ASEAN, up 11.09% year on year, 8.36 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total exports; The export to RCEP member countries was 4.230 billion meters, up 10.14% year on year, 7.41 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total exports. The main contribution to the growth of exports to ASEAN and RCEP member countries is from exports to Vietnam, which accounts for more than 30% of the total exports to ASEAN and RCEP member countries. In the first half of the year, China's exports of eight categories of printing and dyeing products to Vietnam increased by 27.01% and 31.66% year on year respectively.

From January to June, the export volume of China's eight major categories of printing and dyeing products to the top ten countries in terms of export scale reached 6.779 billion meters, accounting for 41.82% of the total export volume, and the export market concentration was relatively high. Among them, the number and amount of exports to Vietnam, Bangladesh and Brazil have all achieved double-digit growth. Vietnam is the only country in the top ten countries where the average unit price of exports has increased. Exports to Nigeria, Indonesia, Myanmar, Russia and Pakistan declined to varying degrees, of which exports to Pakistan declined most significantly, with the number and amount of exports falling 45.14% and 61.51% respectively.

Table 1 Top 10 Countries of China's Eight Major Categories of Printing and Dyeing Products Exported in the First Half of 2024

03 The operation quality needs to be improved, and the benefit level has been significantly improved

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2024, the proportion of the three fees of printing and dyeing enterprises above designated size will be 6.93%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17 percentage points, of which cotton printing and dyeing enterprises will account for 6.73% and chemical fiber printing and dyeing enterprises will account for 8.02%; The turnover rate of finished products was 13.65 times/year, a year-on-year decrease of 4.71%; The turnover rate of accounts receivable was 7.84 times/year, down 3.97% year on year; The turnover rate of total assets was 0.96 times/year, up 3.37% year on year. Compared with the first quarter, the growth rate of the main operating efficiency indicators declined, including the growth rate of the turnover rate of finished products and the turnover rate of accounts receivable turned from positive to negative, reflecting that since the second quarter, due to the weakening of market demand, the efficiency of the enterprise's production and marketing convergence has decreased, the efficiency of capital turnover has slowed, and production and operation have been affected to some extent.

Since this year, supported by the orderly and stable operation of the industrial chain supply chain and the improvement of domestic and foreign market demand, the development benefits of the printing and dyeing industry have achieved significant recovery growth on the basis of a low base in the same period last year. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2024, the operating revenue of printing and dyeing enterprises above designated size will be 152.739 billion yuan, up 9.30% year on year; The total profit was 6.373 billion yuan, up 64.42% year on year; Cost profit rate was 4.47%, up 1.54 percentage points year on year; The sales profit margin was 4.17%, up 1.40 percentage points year on year. The number of loss making households of 1777 printing and dyeing enterprises above designated size was 651, with a loss area of 36.63%, down 1.99 percentage points year on year; The total loss of loss making enterprises was 1.981 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.90%. Although the benefit level of the printing and dyeing industry improved significantly in the first half of the year, the industry's loss area was still high, which only narrowed slightly compared with the same period last year, reflecting that the profit level of enterprises with different scales, different products and different business models was quite different.

(Note: Since the total profit from January to February 2024 is positive and the same period last year is negative, the growth rate of total profit in the current period will not be calculated.)

Figure 3 Growth of operating income and total profit of enterprises above designated size in the printing and dyeing industry in the first half of 2024

Looking forward to the second half of the year, China's printing and dyeing industry still faces many difficulties and challenges to maintain a stable operation and resume a good development trend. Internationally, the global economic recovery is not synchronized, the growth momentum is weak, and the endogenous power of consumption recovery is not strong; Global inflation is stable and falling, but the stickiness is prominent, and inflation may fall longer than expected; Geopolitical conflicts, international trade frictions and other issues occur frequently, which will form a long-term disturbance to the industry's foreign trade, and exports may continue to be under pressure. On the domestic side, risks and challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increased pressure on enterprise operation still need to be resolved.

In the complex and severe development environment, the super large and continuously upgraded domestic demand market will still be the fundamental driving force for the printing and dyeing industry to achieve steady and progressive economic operation. From the perspective of policy support, as the country promotes large-scale equipment renewal and the implementation of the action plan of trade in consumer goods, the digital, intelligent and high-end transformation of the printing and dyeing industry will be steadily promoted, and the proportion of the industry's advanced production capacity will continue to increase, which will help further optimize the product structure and promote the upgrading of textile consumption. In addition, the state has strengthened policy support around strengthening residents' consumption capacity and cultivating new growth points of consumption. Residents' consumption willingness and confidence are expected to gradually recover, the domestic market is expected to continue to expand, and the supporting role of consumption in the economic development of the industry will be further strengthened. China's printing and dyeing industry has the advantages of complete industrial system, complete supporting facilities and high efficiency for a long time. The industry has the foundation and ability to resolve the current foreign trade risks and pressures and stabilize the international market share. It is expected that the economic operation of the industry in the second half of the year will continue the development trend of "fluctuating and still positive".

(Source: China Printing and Dyeing Industry Association)